Raila's Strategy

As the political atmosphere simmers with speculation, Kenya’s commentariat has rushed to dismiss Raila Odinga’s engagement with President William Ruto as capitulation. But a closer reading of his recent statement, that he is prepared to walk away from the MOU if it is not honoured, reveals something far more deliberate; rather than surrender, this is the political architecture Raila has consistently operated within: principled pragmatism, deployed in the service of structural reform.

To misread this moment is to misunderstand the nature of political struggle. Raila’s political story has never been one of ideological rigidity. Instead, it is a long, often painful journey toward political and economic justice, navigated through protests, ballot boxes, courtrooms, and yes, strategic pacts. 

This is not surrender, it is strategy.

Gramsci: The Art of Coalition

Antonio Gramsci’s theory of hegemony offers a compelling framework to read Raila’s political logic. Gramsci argued that enduring power and true transformation require the construction of broad coalitions across competing interests. It is through this lens that Raila’s engagement with his one-time rival, Ruto, must be seen: not as a compromise of principle, but as an act of political vision.

Raila is betting that dialogue with Ruto, if rooted in enforceable commitments, can unlock systemic reform. His famed 10-point agenda lays bare his intentions: electoral justice, an independent and trusted IEBC, cost-of-living relief, fidelity to constitutionalism, respect for devolution, fair taxation, economic inclusion, and state dignity for the poor. These are not abstract ideals. They are the scaffolding of a Kenya that works for all.

Consistency in the Face of Propaganda

Much of the backlash Raila faces today is not rooted in honest critique, but in propaganda, often from political foes who are permanently lodged in the business of opposing him. Their commentary is shaped not by ideology, but by ethnic chauvinism, political tribalism, or sheer bitterness. That many of these detractors have no alternative political vision of their own only sharpens their obsession with delegitimizing Raila’s moves, no matter how principled.

But unlike his attackers, Raila does not define himself by who he opposes. He defines himself by what he fights for. He has done so consistently across decades of arrests, betrayals, elections, and coalitions. That kind of constancy is rare in African politics. And it is revolutionary in a country with a political culture addicted to short-term loyalty and transactional allegiance.

Gachagua’s Remarkable Confession

Perhaps the most potent validation of Raila’s enduring relevance came from a most unexpected corner: former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, aka Riggy G. In a stunning admission, Riggy G referred to Raila as a political institution. He conceded that trying to court Nyanza without him was futile. More shockingly, he declared he would be willing to support Raila in a future bid to unseat President Ruto.

This is not just political theatre. It is a glimpse into the shifting tectonics of power in Kenya. Gachagua’s statement is not an endorsement of Raila per se but a recognition of the gravitational pull he continues to exert. Even those who oppose him understand that no serious political realignment in Kenya can succeed without engaging his orbit.

Between Strategy and Surrender

This moment is not about optics. It is about outcome. If Raila remains in dialogue with Ruto, it is to extract policy and institutional commitments that will outlive both of them. If he walks away, it will be because, as always, he won't be window dressing in someone else’s political theatre.

Kenya must evolve its political analysis beyond the binary of loyalty and betrayal. Political maturity means understanding that real change often requires cooperation without co-option. It means recognizing that deals can serve principle, not just power.

The Bigger Picture

Raila’s history is not one of purity. It is one of purpose. From the days of Saba Saba to the halls of continental diplomacy, from protest movements to handshake deals, he has walked the long road toward a more just society. Through it all, he has remained anchored to the belief that Kenya can be more than its divisions, more than its corruption, and more than its recycled elites.

The real question isn’t whether Raila has changed. The real question is whether Kenya has matured enough to understand the distinction between compromise and capitulation, between short-term enemies and long-term ideals.

Because sometimes, the path to justice runs straight through your rival’s front door.

Gem Musings is a seasoned International Relations and Public Affairs Strategist with extensive experience in global diplomacy, communication, and policy analysis.